IMF、対中経済審査報告を公表 不動産、債務への対応要請
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IMFからの提言ですが、人々の予期を逆転させるような大胆な景気対策が必要だと指摘しています。今の経済状況がどうのというよりも、悲観的な予測が広がっていますが、今の時点では過度な悲観論であっても、その予測によって自己実現的に経済が悪化してしまうことを避けなければならない……という話です。
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/02/01/pr2433-china-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation
Uncertainty surrounding the outlook is high, particularly given the existing large imbalances and associated vulnerabilities. Deeper-than-expected contraction in the property sector could further weigh on private demand and worsen confidence, amplify local government fiscal strains, and result in disinflationary pressures and adverse macro‑financial feedback loops. Greater-than-expected weakening of external demand, tightening of global conditions, and increased geopolitical tensions also pose considerable downside risks. On the upside, decisive policy action, including faster restructuring in the property sector, could boost confidence and lead to a better‑than‑expected rebound in private investment.
